YouGov Eurotrack
November-December, 2023
Methodology
This YouGov Eurotrack survey was conducted in seven Western European nations – Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Denmark and Sweden – and explored fundamental attitudes to the conflict, including whether Europeans feel they can understand the mindsets of its participants, whether they think each side’s attacks were justified, and how they think the conflict should be resolved in the short and long term.
The survey was conducted in mid-November, prior to the temporary ceasefire, except in Germany, where fieldwork took place in early December.
The Details
1. In Western Europe, no side gets greater than 3 in 10 people saying they support it.
2. The trend indicates that we’re reaching an inflection point in terms of support for Israel vs. the Palestinians.
Converting the results to a trend over time, we see a worrying downward trend in support for Israel. But note the upward trend in Western Europeans preferring to support both sides, and the downward trend and plateauing of those who are unsure who to support.
Based on the trend analysis, we expect to see more support in Western European countries for the Palestinians than for Israel, returning to pre-October 7 sentiments.
3. Western Europeans are split on whether they think they understand either side’s attitudes or not.
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Britons, the French, Danes and Swedes tend to say they can understand the motivations of each side, even though they don’t agree with them.
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Germans understand Israel’s motivations more, Spaniards feel the same about the Palestinians’ attitudes, but to a slightly lesser degree.
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Italians are divided.
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Between a third and a quarter in every country don't know where to place themselves.
4. A vast majority in Western Europe think Hamas’ actions are not justified, and between 37-59% think Israel’s response is not justified.
5. Most Western Europeans think Israel should stop the military action and call a ceasefire, and long-term prefer a two-state solution.
Regarding the long-term solution, with the options being things remaining as they are, a two-state solution, a single state home to Jews and Palestinians or the expulsion of one side or the other:
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Between 60-70% in each country back the two-state solution option.
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20-30% back the one-state solution.
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Only 5-13% back the idea that Jews or Palestinians should be expelled and the other side remains.
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8-14% preferred things to remain as they are.
Key Takeaways
Western Europeans tend to see Israel more like Democrats and younger people in the U.S. do. We see more support for Israel than expected, and most people preferring to back both sides or are indifferent. And, as we’ve seen inAmerica, we expect we would see harsher views on Israel amongst younger Western Europeans if the surveys included a demographic breakdown based on age.
We see more support for a ceasefire amongst Western Europeans than Americans. This perhaps may be a reflection of the impact the political leadership is having on each country. With Biden not calling for a ceasefire, as compared to most leaders in Western Europe, it is likely public opinion is influenced by the rhetoric of their leaders.
The two-state solution is still very much alive for Western Europeans. Similarly to responses by Americans, but even more so, with the option of “ending Israel” being far less popular than in the U.S. (the average opting for that solution was 19%, whereas in Western Europe the average for this option is just 6%). This might be attributed to the collective memory of Western Europeans, 75 years after the eradication of a nation was attempted and failed “on their watch”.
The trend should raise a flag for pro-Israelis: we’re heading to the point where there will be more support for the Palestinians again, on account of Israel. This was the case prior to October 7 and we need to be careful to mitigate the harm that this kind of outcome will cause Israel’s attempts to achieve the objectives of the war – to eradicate Hamas, bring back security to Israel’s borders, and free the hostages.
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